Non-oil momentum, stronger fiscal and external positions and strategic connectivity reinforce Oman’s long-term growth outlook
23 September 2026 – Muscat, Sultanate of Oman: Standard Chartered forecasts Oman’s GDP growth to reach 3.5% in both 2026 and 2027, supported by resilient non-oil activity and a positive contribution from hydrocarbon production. The Bank expects non-oil growth to remain robust, underpinned by logistics, manufacturing and continued public investment linked to Oman Vision 2040.
The outlook is reinforced by a significant improvement in Oman’s fiscal and external positions. Standard Chartered has raised its fiscal surplus forecast to 4.6% of GDP in 2026 and 3.6% in 2027, from 0.5% and 1.0% respectively. Public debt is expected to decline towards around 33% of GDP by end-2026 and 31% by end-2027, while the current-account surplus is forecast at 5.0% of GDP in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, compared with previous forecasts of 1.0% and 1.5%.
Hussain Al Yafai, Chief Executive Officer and Head of Coverage, Standard Chartered Oman, said: “Oman is entering the next phase of its development from a stronger economic position. Sustained non-oil growth alongside improving fiscal and external balances provides a firmer foundation for continued investment in the sectors that will shape the Sultanate’s next phase of diversification. The opportunity is to convert this resilience into broader and more durable growth as Oman advances the ambitions of Vision 2040.”
That stronger domestic position is complemented by an emerging external opportunity. As international investors reassess regional supply chains and seek more secure trade routes, Oman’s geographical location, neutral diplomatic position and relatively low exposure to direct conflict spillover are expected to reinforce the strategic value of its ports, industrial zones and logistics infrastructure. Standard Chartered expects investment momentum to strengthen across logistics, manufacturing, re-export activity and energy-linked infrastructure.
Al Yafi added: “As companies rethink supply chains and trade routes, Oman’s advantage is increasingly about connectivity as well as resilience. Its ports, industrial zones and logistics infrastructure serve as a strong platform to capture greater trade and investment activity and strengthen its links with regional and global markets. This can support the continued expansion of the non-oil economy while reinforcing Oman’s position as an increasingly important destination for long-term investment.”
Oman’s improving macroeconomic position and strategic connectivity therefore reinforce one another. Continued progress in the non-oil economy, together with investment in logistics, manufacturing and energy-linked infrastructure, positions the Sultanate to sustain growth while capturing opportunities created by evolving regional trade and investment flows.
About Standard Chartered
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